DEBUNKING DATA: Why You Can’t Trust Official Economic Numbers Anymore | EP. 1

Taylor Kenney - ITM Trading Feb 26, 2024

Join Taylor Kenny on this week’s episode of Taylor Made Economics as we Debunk the Data, revealing the truth behind inflated job numbers and adjusted inflation rates. Discover why the economy isn’t as rosy as the headlines suggest and learn how to protect your financial future with expert analysis from ITM Trading.

CHAPTERS:

00:00 Debunking The Data
00:53 Unemployment Rate
02:50 Bidenomics
05:30 CPI Statistics

TRANSCRIPT:

Do you ever find yourself turning on the news only to feel that what you’re being told doesn’t line up with your experience? You’re not alone.

Despite claims of a robust economy, plummeting inflation and a red hot job market, over 80% of Americans share a different sentiment that things with the economy are getting worse, not better. What if I told you that behind the everything is fine sunshine and rainbows, that there was actually a web of data manipulation distorting the reality we lived in?

I’m Taylor Kenny with ITM Trading and this is Taylor Made Economics.

Numbers don’t lie, but they can deceive. Today will debunk the current job and inflation data separating fact from fiction so that you can understand what the real story is. Because without the truth, how can you possibly protect yourself?

At first glance, the 3.7 unemployment rate may seem incredible. However, this figure doesn’t take into account people who are experiencing reduced hours, diminished wages, or these some 8.7 million people who are working multiple jobs just to make ends meet. And that’s only the tip of the iceberg.

Bureau of Labor Statistics, or BLS, reported last month that there’s around 5.8 million people not in the workforce who would like to be employed, but they’re not included in that 3.7% unemployment because of some arbitrary classification. If we were to include that roughly 6 million people in the numbers, that 3.7. Go figure gets a lot higher when you include everyone who wants a job but doesn’t have one. Let’s take a look at the job numbers.

Would you believe that in January alone, the private sector experienced a loss of over 2 million jobs? Meanwhile, the headlines touted that the economy added 353,000 new jobs. How is this possible? A little something called seasonal adjustment. While seasonal adjustments are normal, of course, there’s going to be a heightened demand around the holidays.

It’s concerning that the news takes us information and portrays it as a sizzling hot job market when in reality they’re not showing you the raw data, they’re showing you adjusted tampered with data, which deprives you of the opportunity to make your own assessment about what’s really going on. And believe me, we barely scratched the surface here on this data manipulation.

These so-called job gains were predominantly in three sectors health care and social assistance, leisure and hospitality and government. The reason why this is so crucial is that many of these gains are being funded and bankrolled by additional new government debt. While President Biden champions the creation of these jobs as a cornerstone of his reelection campaign. His Labor secretary, Julie Su, still has yet to confirm the long term stability of these jobs. If they persevere, are they an economic blessing or rather adding to the burden of debt?

The narrative of Biden-nomics would say that these developments are a success story. In reality, it is much more complex than that, and we will break that down shortly. But job creation or not, I think it’s important that we acknowledge that this continuous debt cycle is unsustainable.

That’s why at ITM Trading, we specialize in helping you protect yourself outside of this system if you haven’t already. Scan the QR code. Call us. Get a strategy in place because as we’ve seen, this trend of data manipulation to create a reality shows no signs of stopping.

A quick visit to whitehouse.gov and a look at last month’s employment record will tell you everything that you need to know. They blatantly call out that the data had sensitive adjustments deftly made by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. But can we trust these adjustments to tell the whole truth? Tell me what you think in the comments below. I know my answer because this leads me to my main concern how the BLS is calculating this data in the first place.

Prior to 2003, the blast used a strict sampling method in order to calculate job creation and cuts. The system was far more accurate than what they have now, but they claimed that the data was too slow or less control. This is when they introduced the birth death model. This model speculates on job creation based on historical businesses, births and deaths or creations and closures.

As you can imagine, it is not very accurate and has consistently inflated job creation numbers since its inception. This full control over the data creation is exactly what’s also happening to inflation data, but in reverse. Inflation is the erosion of your purchasing power represented in the changing price of goods and services. But you guessed it, the way that we measure the price of goods and services is constantly being adjusted.

We can talk all day long about how inflation has come down 3.1%, under 4%. But your wallet doesn’t lie. We have lost over 17% of our purchasing power in the last four years and that is what really matters. The same way that the employment report calculations were changed in 2003 to include the birth death estimate model is the same way that the CPI calculations have changed over 30 times since 1980.

The CPI that we see in the news today is the core CPI. A version of the CPI that conveniently excludes volatile energy and food prices. Go figure. You take out food costs and suddenly inflation looks better. We know what’s really going on. While gas prices might have come down recently, food prices are continuing to rise.

And as they sit today, they are 25% higher than they were in January of 2020. It’s no wonder that Americans are taking on a record amount of debt. And no, not because the consumer is strong, but because they need to to make ends meet. At the end of last year, it was estimated that the American households combined had roughly 17 and a half trillion dollars worth of debt.

And defaults are currently soaring to levels not seen since 2008 as people finance their life’s food and rent on credit. All of this to say you should feel like the economy is crumbling and you’re not alone for not buying the everything is fine narrative that keeps getting pushed.

All of this data has been expertly crafted to make us think that the government is doing their job and doing it well. With one goal in mind to keep us quiet and to keep us content, but we won’t be silenced. Questioning leadership, questioning the system, the Fiat U.S. dollar. These are all essential conversations for our freedom.

The sad truth is the system that we live in was not created or built for you and I, which is why my advice is to leave. Get out. I saw some comments last week that it always comes back to gold, which I’m not going to deny because I am sitting here looking at these numbers, fact from fiction. And what I can tell you with certainty is that the U.S. dollar has declined and will continue due to decline. And that’s not what I want for myself or for you.

So take the first step. Scan the QR code and talk to one of our expert analysts. They have years of experience in helping people get a strategy in place before it’s too soon. And things continue on this path. And you are wishing that you had started this journey earlier or if it’s easier click the cowardly link below to get some time set up with one of our expert analysts. You have nothing to lose and everything to gain.

And as we continue to navigate future headlines and reports, I’ll be here debunking the data and keeping you updated every step of the way. As always, thank you so much for being here. I’m Taylor Kenney with ITM trading. Until next time.

SOURCES:

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/06/2024-presidential-poll-grim-economic-outlook-among-voters-gives-trump-an-advantage.html

https://www.suffolk.edu/news-features/news/2023/09/14/14/51/sbs-usat-econ-poll-2023

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobs-report-exaggerated-the-increase-in-u-s-hiring-in-2023-8f3fcfc1

https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm

https://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/written-materials/2024/02/02/the-january-2024-employment-report-explaining-that-big-upside-surprise/

https://www.bls.gov/ces/home.htm

https://www.bls.gov/bls/empsitquickguide.htm

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

https://www.richmondfed.org/research/national_economy/macro_minute/2023/mm_08_15_23

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/layoffs-surged-98-in-2023-it-could-get-worse-this-year