The rise in vacant office buildings is more than just an eyesore—it’s a ticking time bomb threatening the U.S. economy. With commercial real estate delinquencies at record highs and over $1 trillion in loans coming due by 2025, small and regional banks are dangerously exposed. In this video, we uncover how this crisis mirrors 2008, how it could lead to widespread bank failures, and what you can do to protect yourself. Learn why physical gold and silver are critical in uncertain times.

CHAPTERS:
00:00 Introduction: Empty Office Buildings—A Hidden Crisis
00:25 Commercial Real Estate Delinquencies Surge
00:55 Breaking Down the Ripple Effects
01:10 How Big Banks Created the Problem
02:12 Historic Vacancy Levels: Landlords Defaulting
02:47 The Banks Holding the Risk
03:33 Why This Crisis Mirrors 2008
04:10 The Domino Effect: 4 Key Risks to Watch
06:05 “Survive Until 2025”: A Doomed Strategy
06:43 Escalating Delinquencies: The Fastest Spike in History
07:26 How Bank Failures Could Ripple Through the Economy
08:00 Why You Can’t Count on the Fed to Save You
09:09 Protect Yourself Now: Physical Gold and Silver

TRANSCRIPT:

00:00
You’ve seen them—the towering, empty office buildings with the lights off and the doors locked. But what if I told you that all of those empty buildings were a ticking time bomb? And when it explodes, it could bring down the entire economy—and your finances—with it. The delinquency rate for office loans has surged to 10.4%, just shy of the peak during the 2008 meltdown. And the speed of the crisis? It’s the fastest-growing we have ever seen.

00:25
There’s also a new study out that says almost 34% of companies are cutting or completely getting rid of office space. Every single regional and local bank across the country is now assessing their loan assets and liabilities, and as a result, they’re going to be more discerning about extending credit to commercial real estate. Something must be done because there are so many commercial real estate loans that are coming due between now and 2025.

00:55
Today, in this video, I’ll break down just how bad the situation has gotten, how all of these empty offices could cause a ripple effect through the economy, hurting you, and most importantly, how you can protect yourself.

01:10
Despite pronouncements by landlords earlier this year that commercial real estate had bottomed out, we continue to see vacancies rise. But it wasn’t always this way. In 2019, we saw a very different picture being painted. Big banks fabricated a lie—go figure—that there was an office shortage, prompting companies to lease space that they didn’t really need when rates were near zero, willing this office shortage propaganda into existence just in time for the pandemic to hit.

01:33
But many wrongfully assumed that vacancies from the pandemic would be temporary. Even as businesses call their employees back in, vacancies continue to rise, exposing the truth: many of these office buildings, especially the older ones, are worth far less than previously priced—sometimes 50–70% less than they were on paper.

02:12
Now, today, with historic vacancy levels, landlords are choosing to stop making their payments because they cannot afford to. They are not generating enough in rent to cover interest and other expenses, hence the rising delinquency rates.

02:25
But as these delinquencies rise, who is actually holding the loans? Simply put: as more landlords default, it’s banks holding these loans that are at risk.

02:47
What no one is looking at is the exposure to commercial real estate that smaller and regional banks are holding. While the largest banks have about 50% of their risk capital tied up in commercial real estate, the picture is far bleaker when we look at small and regional banks, which account for 150% and 228% of their total risk exposure—far above what anyone would consider a safe risk level.

03:33
If these loans go bad—and they already are—then banks could fail. And when banks fail, it impacts everyday Americans.

03:44
This isn’t just an office vacancy problem. Remember 2008? It started with bad home loans. Today, it’s bad office loans. Different buildings, same potential for disaster.

04:10
Cue the domino effect in four parts.
Number one: banks fail, leaving your savings at risk. As the stock market crashes, any investment you have tied up with financial institutions leaves you vulnerable.

Number two: banks pull back on lending to businesses and individuals. Let me ask you, what happens when a business doesn’t have access to a loan? Well, we see the layoffs increase. That means your job, your friend’s job, and your family member’s job are all at risk of disappearing.

Number three: if commercial real estate collapses, it drags down the value of homes and properties nearby, meaning your home could be worth less, even if you’ve done nothing wrong and everything right.

And last but not least, number four: can you guess what it is? Someone out there is sitting there thinking to themselves, “Well, none of this matters anyway because the government will just bail us out.” Well, what have we learned from the past?

04:46
If the government were to step in, we would see inflation grow from where it already is today, meaning that the dollars in your wallet, your savings, and your retirement would all be worth less.

05:05
But how close are we? Anyone who thinks that this is temporary is sadly mistaken because there is nothing temporary about the glut of excess office buildings, especially the older buildings, as a result of years of overbuilding and companies hogging space at near-zero interest rates that they had no use for in the first place.

05:27
Vacancies are not going away. That means that U.S. banks are facing a reckoning. Over the next year and a half, over a trillion dollars’ worth of commercial real estate is coming due, meaning that the chances are heightened of hundreds of banks failing simultaneously. This is scary stuff.

06:05
What is their solution? “Survive until 2025.” That has been the catchphrase, under the assumption that vacancies would go up and interest rates would come crashing down. But as we start the new year, what are we actually faced with? Smaller interest rate cuts nowhere near what these banks were hoping for.

And even if, miraculously, interest rates come all the way back down to zero overnight, most of these landlords are still unable to keep up with payments. The rate of escalating vacancies has led to the fastest two-year spike in delinquencies in history, meaning that this crisis isn’t slowing down—it’s speeding up.

06:43
The clock is ticking on these banks, who are not facing the truth about these commercial real estate loans. So far, they’ve “extended and pretended,” changing the terms of the mortgages, allowing for grace and more time in an attempt to mitigate their losses.

07:26
All it takes is a 10% loss on commercial real estate loans to render 100 banks, representing over a trillion dollars in assets, undercapitalized. But if that number jumps up to 20%—a 20% loss on commercial real estate—now we have over 900 banks across the United States that are left undercapitalized.

08:00
And as I’ve outlined before, do not count on the Fed, the FDIC, or even the larger banking institutions to come in and save hundreds of banks simultaneously. It’s just not going to happen that way.

Now is the time to protect your savings and to prepare for what’s coming before it’s too late. Do not be the one left behind who did not prepare, who did not have a plan in place when all the warning signs were flashing red.

09:09
But thankfully, history has already shown us what to do in these situations. When financial systems crumble, you want to have physical gold and silver outside of the system to protect your wealth. But the only way that works is to have your insurance plan, to have your strategy in place before it all comes crashing down.

09:42
If any of this is concerning to you and you do not have a plan in place, I highly recommend you talk to one of our expert analysts. Even if you do have a plan in place, I still recommend getting a second opinion because they understand these threats. They will give it to you straight and help you make sure you have a strategy in place that is right for your concerns and your goals.

As always, I so appreciate you being here. I’m Taylor Kenney with ITM Trading, your trusted source for all things gold, silver, and lifelong wealth protection. Until next time.

SOURCES:
https://www.barrons.com/news/us-fed-concerned-about-rise-in-office-loan-delinquency-abd186b1

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/survive-25-rxr-ceo-lays-220603999.html?guccounter=1&gu[…]d6BziNlFZpNsqvY5E81XfjnKuIYtBNuTIRapdzG67_3b0RvzJtwCeREh-UK2

https://www.globest.com/2024/10/25/cre-mortgage-delinquencies-climb-as-office-struggles-persist/

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-27/offices-will-be-even-more-empty-in-2026

https://hbr.org/2024/07/u-s-commercial-real-estate-is-headed-toward-a-crisis

https://www.worldpropertyjournal.com/real-estate-news/united-states/new-york-city-real-esta[…]4-commercialedge-us-office-market-report-pet-14267.php

https://fortune.com/2024/11/15/return-to-office-loan-delinquencies-commercial-real-estate-crisis/

https://www.businessinsider.com/commercial-real-estate-cre-debt-office-vacancy-bank-lending-moody-2024-9

https://www.mpamag.com/us/specialty/commercial/cmbs-delinquencies-rise-again-as-office-loans-face-growing-distress/516481

https://wolfstreet.com/2024/11/30/office-cmbs-delinquency-rate-spikes-to-10-4-just-b[…]t-of-financial-crisis-cre-meltdown-fastest-2-year-spike-ever/