In this riveting episode, Daniela Cambone invites Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at VerifiedInvesting.com, to delve deep into the world of Bitcoin, gold, Ethereum, MicroStrategy, and more.

Kicking things off with a discussion on Bitcoin, which has been hitting new all-time highs amid a surge in interest following the ETF approval, Soloway shares his expert analysis on potential price targets and the impact of market sentiment on Bitcoin’s trajectory. With central banks ramping up their gold purchases and geopolitical tensions simmering, Soloway explores the bullish case for gold, including his target price of $5,000 and beyond.

Don’t forget to hit the subscribe button and stay tuned for more exclusive content!

CHAPTERS:

00:00 Bitcoin’s trajectory
4:32 Bitcoin halving
5:06 Balaji’s comment
6:34 Long-term view on bitcoin
9:14 What should investors do?
10:38 Michael J. Saylor’s comments on bitcoin
12:35 Microstrategy
13:51 Ethereum
15:18 Nvidia
17:11 Boeing
18:40 S&P
21:21 Recession + inflation
22:11 Gold

TRANSCRIPT FROM VIDEO:

00:05
Hi, this is Daniela Cambone and welcome back to the Daniela Cambone show here on ITM Trading. Back with me today, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist over at VerifiedInvesting.com He brings with him over 20 years of analyzing and reading charts. Gareth, always good to be with you. Welcome back. Hey, thank you, Daniela. It’s so nice to be back here with you as always. Yes. And animal spirits alive and well.

00:34
So many charts to cover with you. I obviously want to talk Bitcoin. We’re going to talk gold. We’re going to talk Ethereum. I want to talk MicroStrategy and Michael Saylor’s recent words. He has reignited the Bitcoin versus gold debate. Maybe it’s time I have to do another one of those. So we’re going to talk all this good stuff. Let’s start with the biggest one here, Bitcoin, obviously making new all-time highs. I know you’re looking at 75,000.

01:02
But talk to me about what’s going on with Bitcoin. Obviously we’ve seen the floodgates open once at the ETF here in the United States and now in the UK, Gareth. What do you expect here? What are the charts telling you?

01:15
Yeah, so

01:42
And there’s this animal spirits that everyone is chasing that next big gain. And again, you know, while Bitcoin could go up a little bit higher, and again, I have a couple targets, but you mentioned the 75,000 level, I think it’s worth just showing a few other possibilities. There’s something called a measured move, where if we take the low of the last cycle to the recent high of the 2021 cycle, that’s a 65 almost $66,000 move. The concept here is that you ultimately replicate that move here.

02:10
And that would actually take us up to about, oh, I think it’s right around that $80,000 target. So again, you replicate what we would call a measured move here. So again, I think as long as it’s a risk on environment, you’re likely going to see potentially further upside in Bitcoin. My only fear is this, right, is that if we see the S&P start to crumble, we’ve seen some reversal candles, we’ve seen some engulfing candles on the S&P on the semiconductors on specifically Nvidia.

02:39
can the buyers stay with the Bitcoin trade and the alt alt coin trade and one of the things I’ll just mention here too is that it’s very concerning and I was just talking with Ben Cowan about this on our no shills on earlier is that the scams are alive and prevalent and so crazy that that to me is a warning sign it’s a be careful sign that the the kind of the people are not investing because it’s a good investment.

03:04
but because it’s an easy 100x on the next meme coin, and that’s a warning sign we saw in 2021. Okay, so a few things here. Talking upside, so when the folks like Max Kaiser are reigniting the 220, 250,000 mark, does that sound absurd to you or a likelihood?

03:26
So it’s really a matter of timeframe, right? And you saw, by the way, we saw the same thing in November of 2021, is these ridiculous price targets for one month out, you know, for me, there’s no way you’re getting to you know, even by year end, you’re not going to 200 to $250,000. Is it possible 100,000? If we see risk on the answers? Yeah, 100,000 is a potential target by year end.

03:49
if that risk on environment stays. But just a couple notes here, we’re seeing the Federal Reserve clamping down on some of their lending policies. So the the banking, the the kind of the banking lending program, it was an emergency lending program that they started back when Silicon Valley Valley Bank failed, they have just ended that as of today. And that was a way for the banks to borrow cheap money, and then ultimately use it as an arbitrage opportunity. So so I do worry that some of this liquidity in the system is starting to dry up, we know our government, of course, doesn’t think

04:18
That’s the way it should be as we continue to run up a trillion dollars every 100 days in the national debt. But I do think again, it’s all a liquidity bubble at this point. And as long as that continues, then Bitcoin could easily hit 100K by end of year. Wow. Okay. What does the halving mean? We know the April halving is coming up. What would it mean for prices? So in general, I think you’re seeing a buy the news by I should say by the rumor on the halving just like the ETF. It’s such a hyped up event.

04:46
you know, you’re going to see, see, obviously, the ability to mine get get much harder for a lot of these miners. So I do think that it’s in general, a longer term bullish scenario. But I would if we run up into that having I would look for the same sort of sell off that we saw right after this body TF was approved, where we pulled back about 20%. I also want to bring up a comment from former Coinbase Chief Technology Officer, he told his almost million followers were in the looting the Treasury face.

05:15
of imperial collapse. He basically urged his followers to snap up Bitcoin, gold and silver, citing the risk of rising national debt in the United States. What do you make of comments like that, Garrett? Yeah. So I mean, I think it’s a very myopic view in terms of saying it’s going to happen right now. There’s no doubt it is happening, right? There’s no doubt that there’s very little avenues for the US government to get out of the situation they put themselves in without

05:44
austerity measures like we saw in Europe in the in the you know, 2010 2012 period. But I think that for the most part, it’s not something that you need to fear monger this second, right? There’s still a long runway where this will take to play out. I do think again, gold and silver is a prime play for security. I do worry about Bitcoin that I think in the longer term, like I continue to be this massive bull on the Bitcoin narrative longer term.

06:12
But the problem is that when you get these massive runs, people generally will buy the top just before the pullback. And then when it drops 20 or 30%, most of them are not the maxis that are gonna hold on and they end up taking losses. And we saw this in 2021 as well. So I think again, gold is your safer asset to play in this scenario until Bitcoin calms down and it starts behaving much more like gold. And this is why the cheerleaders of Bitcoin like Michael Saylor keep urging

06:42
never sell your Bitcoin, right? Right. Right. You have to have you have to have that long term view. And the problem is, is people go into the trades on Bitcoin with a long term view. And then the pain gets too too intense for them. And they usually end up exiting at the lows. And so I think I think that’s the key is that ultimately, yes, are we on this detrimental path where, you know, lending costs or borrowing costs are going up.

07:07
quite a bit like when we roll over, I think we’re rolling over seven to eight trillion in US debt this year alone, the borrowing costs on that debt are going to be way higher than they were initially when we took that out. And then you talk about well, all of these politicians are only focused on getting reelected in a few years. And therefore, they’re not looking at the long term. And they’re just like, let’s just spend because it makes me look good and get me gets me reelected. And so no one’s paying attention to the longer term run until

07:34
it gets to be Max Payne where we start to see these other countries saying, you know what, we’re not going to lend you this money for anything less than 510 15%. And that’s when the party will ultimately stop. I want to get back to Michael Saylor and his recent comments, but a few more points on Bitcoin here because you know, the folks will remember and say, well, Gareth, you were so bearish Bitcoin, you know, you were expecting it out, you know, obviously, a few months ago, but you were expecting it to go down to 12,000 10,000. I just had Keith Neumeyer on and he brought you up saying,

08:04
Well, I was hoping Bitcoin was going to hit that 10,000 mark. And that’s what I wanted to buy. And he missed the boat. Yeah. So one, how do you address that? Right? Yeah. So so so once we got to 20, so my initial call was 69,000 to 20, we achieved that. And then one of the things we talked about in our interviews is that the way we get to 10k is if the stock market collapses, right, if we see a 50% drop in the stock market.

08:29
that’s what will trigger Bitcoin to have that additional sell off to 10 or 9000. That obviously didn’t happen, right? And so I still think that Bitcoin is vulnerable to a massive liquidity issue where where you start to see the leverage in the system become too big, the stock market begins to decline, you see deleveraging occur, and Bitcoin could easily go back to 30 to 32. But as a trader, again, you have to be able to move with the trends, right? And with the charts. And so at this stage,

08:57
unless we saw a depression, I don’t see Bitcoin going back to those levels of 10k. But I do think that once we see the markets pull back substantially 2030 40% on the equity markets, we still should see a retrace to that 30 to 32,000 level. But so as an investor, right, let’s say someone missed the boat completely on Bitcoin, but maybe wants to get in now. I mean, these levels seem frightening. Yeah, well, listen, I’m not a buyer that it is going above 100,000.

09:27
Yeah, so so you’re not a buyer. No, definitely not a buyer up here. There’s too much. There’s too many kind of amateurs kind of piling in at this point. And again, like I’m okay, missing trades, like that’s the beauty of is that there’s always a good trade. Like, so for me, once I missed the Bitcoin boat, I swing trade it, I’ll go long, I’ll go short at these key levels.

09:45
But I’m more of a buyer of looking at charts like gold chart just before it broke out recently and saying, this is a good setup. This is a bull flag. This is consolidating since 2020. This is a chart that I can be okay with in terms of risk versus reward. And then you look at other things, whether it’s shorting Nvidia up here for a reversal down a little bit or other opportunities. But again, for me, there’s so many opportunities, I hope investors see that they get so caught up in like, oh, but I could have made 100x on this.

10:12
Yeah, but there’s always another opportunity. I’ve never been in a position where I took a trade or a missed a trade and then been like, Oh, that was the last trade of my life. There’s no other opportunities like they’ll be the next Bitcoin out there. There’ll be the next Ethereum, there’ll be always something new. And to me, it’s a risk reward assessment, meaning that, you know, once something runs 100%, I’m not chasing it, I’m not going to be one of those people that’s left holding the bag when the rug gets pulled. Instead, I’ll look and find the next thing that hasn’t run yet.

10:40
Very, very important point there. Let’s bring up MicroStrategy’s chart if you don’t mind, Gareth. Is buying MicroStrategy like buying Bitcoin? I bring up MicroStrategy because Michael Saylor, the co-founder, said Bitcoin will become the world’s most valuable commodity. I’m not surprised by that comment, but basically he said Bitcoin will eat gold. It surpassed silver over the weekend to become the world’s eighth largest asset.

11:10
He bought 820 million worth of Bitcoin on Monday. What do you make about his comments? I mean, obviously he’s a champion for Bitcoin, but to come out and say like, it’s gonna eat gold, it’s gonna demolish everything, I mean, just your thoughts on that overall. I mean, so the first thing I think about when you say that is like, that’s classic Michael Saylor, right? Did we really expect anything different to come out of his mouth? No. Now, having said that.

11:36
I do agree that if you ask me where this is in 30 years from now, yeah, I do absolutely agree that this could rival the market cap of gold. So I think you have that narrative. But again, it’s a matter of what are investors expecting? Like if someone’s buying today at $72,000 to $73,000, are they ready for the volatility that comes with that, which is corrections of 20 to 30 to 40 to 50%?

12:04
And I think that’s the kicker is that when he says it, I think there’s a lot of retail investors that think, oh, man, you know, I’ll buy this now. And in five years, I’ll be so rich. And they’re not looking at the risks involved the drawdowns. And so again, for me, absolutely, I think it’s a fair statement. If you’re looking at the next 20 to 30 years, he probably would tell you it’s a lot shorter timeframe. But for me, again, it’s it’s a matter of, are you going to tell investors that this is going here? And what’s your timeframe on it? I don’t know if he gave a timeframe on that. But I think that’s an important factor.

12:34
I’m going to bring up central banks in a second. But first, let’s just look at this micro strategy chart. Is it parallel to Bitcoin for you? Is it the exact same play? What are you seeing? Yeah. So the one thing that caught my attention today on micro strategies is that it’s up 12 and a half percent today while Bitcoin is only up about what is a Bitcoin up here? Let’s take a look.

12:53
Bitcoin’s up about 5%, right? So that’s the first thing that gets my attention here is that it seems to be outperforming Bitcoin, which means investors are using it as a leveraged trade on Bitcoin. And I would just caution investors and say to them that, listen, this can go up more than Bitcoin goes up. But remember, when Bitcoin pulls back 5%, this probably drops 15%. So again, to me, it’s more of an opportunity where if you’re looking for a leveraged trade long or short on Bitcoin, you might be able to play

13:23
micro strategies in that in that way. Now, I think, again, the other thing to keep in mind is people that are investing in micro strategies, it’s like people that invested in Tesla in 2021. They’re much they’re buying into Bitcoin just as much as Michael Saylor. Michael Saylor is the the champion of Bitcoin he has been. And so I think that carries within a premium just like Tesla did back in 2021. Absolutely, absolutely. Garth, let’s let’s pull up a theory and before we move on.

13:52
from the cryptocurrencies. I mean, folks are looking at this obviously more affordable compared to Bitcoin here. Pushing above 4,000 as we speak, what are the levels to watch and do you like Ethereum? Yeah, I do think that there’s a place in the future for Ethereum. It carries with it more risks. So Bitcoin is obviously the pure digital gold, if you will. There’s nothing really that rivals that at this point.

14:17
Ethereum, the network is amazing. But you also have Solana nipping at its heels, you have a bunch of other coins that could come out and kind of rival it. So I do think that essentially investors in Ethereum have to say, okay, I’m investing in this because I believe in their network, not because it’s a store of value like Bitcoin. Having said that, I think the key here is that you are at this resistance level just around 4000. It’s a pivot high from 2021 September.

14:41
If we get through that, your next level should be around $4,400, which was the high from May of 2021. And then if we get through that, you’re looking at around $5,000 on Ethereum. The one little caveat to this is just keep in mind that Ethereum continues to underperform Bitcoin. It hasn’t yet taken out its all time highs versus Bitcoin obviously has. Right. So there is a little bit of a difference there. And a lot of people would look at this and say, oh, well, this means this one should play catch up. I would just caution people. That’s not always how it works.

15:11
There might be a reason why it’s lagging. Maybe it’s the competition from other coins like causing it to lag. If you don’t mind, let’s pull up Nvidia, the chip maker. So it’s biggest one day loss in 10 months last Friday, just to put things into perspective for investors. 250 billion had been wiped out from the stock in three hours. I mean, Nvidia, basically making Jim Cramer look like a champion again for a brief moment. But your thoughts on the chip maker.

15:41
Do you like it? So no, I’m actually short Nvidia here, the reversal so a reversal candle, this is a reversal engulfing candle and just to kind of explain, you look for charts that have gone parabolic. And then in this case, you look for gaps that open above the previous day high.

15:58
and you close below the previous day low. And so that’s called in the technical analysis world, a reversal engulfing candle. And it’s unbelievably bearish. Basically, the concept is that it opened higher. Everyone was so excited. And then big money came in and just pounded it to the downside. And oftentimes, you might look back and say, wow, that was a multi-year top on Nvidia. And in my case for Nvidia, by the way, I still think Nvidia eventually comes back to $300 per share, believe it or not.

16:26
And the thought process here is very simple is that you have a chip, right? AI chips. Nvidia is the only game in town, right? Basically, they are the Tesla of 2021 when when really Tesla vehicles were the only quality UV in town. What have we seen Tesla do? They’ve been lowering prices margins eroding, because everyone else is now creating UVs that rival Tesla. And that’s going to happen with Nvidia as well. You have all these other companies, they’re all trying to produce the next greatest AI chip.

16:56
Eventually, it’s going to crush margins and Nvidia will come back to earth. It’s not going to be in the near term, but probably in the next 12 to 18 months. I think Nvidia could retest that 500 even maybe 300 level. I guess, before we talk gold, do we want to pull up? I know you’ve been talking a lot about Boeing and Costco, Boeing dropping again. You’re keeping an eye on it, but you say the church just beat down here. Could it reverse amongst all this bad news coming out of Boeing?

17:25
Yeah, so so usually those are things I look for, like I look for quality names that have just had bad news after bad news after bad news. My only concern here is that we have this channel and you can see the highs all match up, you can draw that line and then a perfectly parallel line here. And we’ve actually broken below that. So in the very least, I’m not a buyer yet on Boeing, you have this pivot low around 177 that I would be much more apt to be a buyer at. But for for certain

17:52
These are the things I look for. And I don’t know if you remember, but if we go back here, if this drop here was the 2020 collapse, but we also saw a lot of things going on with Boeing having trouble with their aircrafts back then, and it turned out to be an amazing buying opportunity. So again, when things are oftentimes the worst, when they look the worst, when they say blood in the streets in the stock market lingo, that’s when you want to be nibbling. But you also have to do your research and say, all right, is this still a quality company?

18:20
can they turn it around and will people trust them? And I would just say that there’s not many competitors out there. You have Airbus, right? You have those type of planes and then you essentially have Boeing. And so I think Boeing, if it gets to the 176, 177 level starts to look interesting. Bigger picture here. Let’s pull up the S&P. What are you seeing on the S&P front, Gareth? All right, so this is a big one here. So the S&P. Okay.

18:48
Yeah, this is this is really and this is so important because it speaks to where the market could be breaking down like we always look for that pivotal time where the market could be breaking. And today, you can see this trend line here, there’s this is what we call a wedge pattern. First of all, very rare that a market or a stock would stay in this wedge pattern that narrows so much to the point where on Friday, we opened at the highs of the line and we basically closed near the lows. Today, we open below that line, but we’re they’re starting to save us here.

19:18
we’re starting to rally back up. So what I’m looking for here is a close below this line. If that does happen, I think it triggers a cascade sell event in the markets that could actually take us down to at least a 10% correction in a very short amount of time, maybe within two to four weeks. Wow.

19:35
Yeah, yeah, we’re on the precipice here. And again, you know, just to keep in mind, so we know the Fed is ending that lending program, we also know that reverse repo has almost been already distributed back to the bank. So there’s a lot of signals that liquidity is kind of starting to dry up in the system. And in fact, the Fed has referred to this in their latest minutes that just came out, I think a week ago, talking about how they’re starting to realize that some of these lending programs they had have have been taken advantage of by the banks in terms of getting more liquidity in. And I would just point this out to is that

20:04
the markets are driven on liquidity, right? At risk assets, the more money in the system, Allah, after COVID, the higher asset prices will go. That’s just the nature of it. And what we’ve seen is we’ve seen more and more of these type of realizations from the Fed, which then leads to them clamping down. And I think eventually, it’ll cause the markets to start to correct. And what’s going to happen if we don’t clamp down on this, we’re going to see inflation start to uptick more and more. And I was even talking about this earlier is that we’re now at 3% and starting to uptick.

20:33
what happens if we go into a recession with inflation at 4%? How does the Fed even maneuver and that would be catastrophic to the markets. And the last thing I’ll add here is that keep in mind the Fed balance sheet has been reduced by 1.5 trillion, but the US debt goes up by 1 trillion every hundred days. So just those metrics alone offset the the balance sheet decline of the Fed and keep the liquidity in the market. So it’s all a liquidity game at this point, how much money is in the system?

21:02
And once that starts to dry up, the asset prices even across the board in crypto should start to come in substantially. I mean, you raise a really good point recession plus inflation, how do you get out of that? And honestly, there’s no good way. I mean, the Fed will literally have to move the goalposts on inflation and say, okay, we’re willing to accept, let’s say 3.5, because the economy is getting so bad. Right now, they’re in this Goldilocks moment of low, low unemployment and inflations coming back in.

21:31
But in reality, we just heard from China that their CPI is uptick again, right. And we know if their economy so if China’s economy starts to uptick, it’s more competition for goods, right? People in China are doing better, they want to buy more things, my more iPhones, etc. And then all of a sudden, prices start to move back up. And again, this is this is the dance that the Fed is going to have to deal with. And I honestly don’t see us avoiding a recession. The question is, where is inflation when that hits?

21:58
Can the Fed drop interest rates as much as they need to to get us out of a recession? Yep, CPR rising in China for the first time in six months. So huge, huge, huge critical point. Let’s wrap with gold. I know you had said 2,500 by year end, but with now the new all-time highs, has that changed at all for you? I also wanna talk gold because we saw China buying more gold.

22:25
That’s right. Which makes me, well, I have a few questions. One, will we ever see central banks buy Bitcoin? Eventually, I do think so. And again, just my humble opinion, I could be wrong, but I do eventually think that more and more central banks will accumulate it, probably not yet, because it’s too risky of an asset for them to hold, unless it’s in small amounts. But I do eventually think that that becomes a backstop, just like digital or gold would be, absolutely.

22:52
And then to your point about China, you’re right. And again, this has been one of my bull cases for gold while it sat sideways for the last couple years. And why I loved it is because every central bank pretty much of significance and countries have been gobbling up gold left and right, while the retail crowd has been pulling money out of GLD and pulling money and really under invested in the miners. And I think there’s this huge reversion trade coming as the smartest money, the money that has the control.

23:19
has been piling in that tells me everything I need to know about which way this is going to go. So let’s talk let’s talk talk about what the charts are telling you on gold here. Like I said, 2500 was your target. Is it still? Yeah, so so again, we’ll keep it at a reasonable target just so I can have a chance at actually being right on this. But I think I think yes 2500 would be the inverse head and shoulders breakout target zone. I think it’s around $2,540.

23:47
once we get there, I think we have to reevaluate what the economics are showing us. Is the Fed printing recklessly? Where’s inflation? What’s the global demand? Where are things at this point? I still think ultimately gold goes a lot higher than that. But I wouldn’t be surprised if we at least see some consolidation around 2500 and maybe a pullback at that point. But again, I’m in the camp personally that I would not be shocked if in a few years, you know, three, four or five years, we have gold at $5,000 an ounce that would not shock me one bit.

24:18
Gareth Soloway of Verified Investing, I love catching up with you, come back anytime. Thank you, Gareth. Thank you so much, it’s always a pleasure to talk with you. And I just wanna remind all our viewers, if you have any questions about this content or other content or wanna discuss a strategy around everything going on, feel free to reach out to one of my associates at ITM Trading at the link below in the description of this video.

24:45
And don’t forget to sign up at danielacambone.com so you can stay on top of all this incredible content. We will see you soon. Thanks for watching.