The latest jobs report shows unexpected growth, but is it the whole story? Explore how government job creation and low survey response rates may be painting an inaccurate picture, and what this means for inflation and your financial future.

CHAPTERS:

00:00 – Introduction
01:04 – President Biden’s Comments on the Jobs Report
01:35 – Government Job Creation Explained
03:19 – Timing and Election Impact
04:04 – Why the Jobs Report May Be Inaccurate
06:21 – Downward Revisions and Small Businesses
07:13 – Inflation Expectations and Wage Growth
09:19 – The War on Your Dollar
10:21 – How to Protect Your Wealth

TRANSCRIPTION:

00:00
Hi everyone, thank you for being here. Before we dive into this week’s big news, I wanted to take a moment, as I know many of us are focused on what’s going on in Florida with Hurricane Milton, and quickly say that our hearts are with those impacted. If you’re affected, we are thinking about you, and stay safe out there.

Switching gears, this week supposedly brought joyful news—a blockbuster jobs report, a report that was so strong that no one saw it coming—not the government, not experts, not economists. Wow! Did we just all completely miss something, or is there more to the story that you’re going to want to hear because it will directly impact your wallet?

00:33
Well, before I tell you exactly what’s going on, President Biden is already trying to get in front of this, stating, and I quote, “If you notice anything the MAGA Republicans don’t like, they call it fake. The job numbers are what the job numbers are. They’re real. They’re sincere.” Well, with all due respect, Mr. President, this has nothing to do with political affiliation, and I’m not even necessarily saying that the numbers are fake. It could be true that, on paper, a quarter of a million jobs were added, but we should be looking at why, how, and where these jobs came from.

01:04
Because again, at the end of the day, this isn’t just some report that disappears—real policy is made off of this report. In fact, the Federal Reserve is already deciding that they’re going to backpedal potentially on their rate cuts next month just because of this report. So pardon us for wanting to look at the data and make sure that what we’re seeing is real, because, in fact, there’s a lot more to the story here than they would have you think.

01:35
We’ve seen a lot of different ways in the past that this jobs report has been dressed up, whether it’s part-time employees or people working multiple jobs, but this time the answer lies in the type of jobs that were added. So right here I have this from the BLS, I’ll put it up on the screen so we can see it—it shows the number of workers that were added, seasonally adjusted. Look at the government section. From August to September, there was a jump of 785,000 government workers—the largest jump we’ve seen outside of COVID, which was just a rebound from government workers not working during that period of time. Otherwise, this is the largest jump we’ve ever seen in government workers.

02:04
Why does this matter to you? Why do you care that so many government workers were added? Well, as a quick reminder, a government worker is employed for and paid for by the government, and who funds the government? Government taxpayers—you and I.

02:40
Now, that would be all fine and dandy if taxpayer dollars actually paid for the entire budget, but we are already running a deficit. So every single headcount that’s added—almost three-quarters of a million government employees in one month—means that that is more deficit, more debt, more dollars being created, and that is reducing the purchasing power of the dollars in your wallet. But hold on, maybe I’m not being fair—maybe all of these jobs are very essential, and maybe it’s just a coincidence that the government needed to create all of these jobs at our expense a month before the election.

03:19
If they didn’t create all these jobs, unemployment would have jumped from 4.1% to 4.5%, and the outlook would have looked terrible for the economy. Maybe it’s just a coincidence, I don’t know. What do you think? I think I can guess, but tell me in the comments below. Because we are not done yet—we are just getting started.

03:57
As if the government job creation wasn’t fishy enough, we now have something else to be concerned about. I’m telling you, I shouldn’t be as shocked as I am, but every time I find a new piece of information like this, it never ceases to amaze me.

04:04
“Clouds on the horizon for employment”—this article from Barron’s talks about how September gains blew expectations out of the water, but a chief U.S. economist expects that the Bureau of Labor Statistics will revise the number downward. Okay, that’s not surprising to those of us who have followed this kind of data. We know that downward revisions have been the norm over the last couple of years, but why?

04:30
It says the response rate in the September payroll survey was extremely low, with 62% of businesses in the sample responding. That is down from 68% a year ago and an average of 77% for September in the 2010s. Think about that for a second. It used to be a 77% response rate, then it was 68% a year ago, and now it’s 62%—the lowest response rate. Well, what could that possibly mean?

05:13
We understand that if you have a sample, it’s not always going to be 100% accurate—that’s just basic math. We understand that you take a sample, and hopefully, it represents the best of its ability. But if you have a smaller sample size representing the same population of businesses or jobs, that sample becomes less accurate, because the smaller the sample gets, the more skewed it can be.

05:45
Listen to this, because someone out there might be saying, “Well, just because it’s smaller doesn’t mean it’s skewed more favorably. Maybe it’s skewed more negative; maybe the revision will come up positive.” Well, listen to this: revisions, as more data is received, are almost always downward, because small businesses are disproportionately late responders and are cutting back on hiring more than large businesses.

06:21
We are convinced, therefore, that September’s print will be revised much lower. Now again, you and I could have guessed this, but to see this outlined in this way—that they had the lowest response rate for payroll, the lowest response rate ever, and that what it probably means is that small businesses, the businesses that are hurting because maybe they’re short-staffed, maybe they’re drowning, are not responding to this—of course it’s going to come out later that there are going to be downward revisions. Yet this is not mainstream news; this is not what they want us to know.

06:48
You might be wondering, well, how exactly does this impact me? I’ll tell you. We cannot keep ignoring the reality of the labor market. What we have happening today is a situation where there’s more government spending to create government employees, and eventually, as the truth comes out that there aren’t as many jobs, there’s going to be more government aid. And again, it’s going to lead to inflation and an erosion of the purchasing power of your dollar.

07:13
In fact, the White House themselves don’t even deny this. Listen to what they say here—I found this on whitehouse.gov: “Strong job and wage gains continue in this historically unique expansion.” Don’t you love that? “Historically unique”—it’s historically unique, all right, because you guys are the ones creating all of the jobs. Anyway, it says here, though we do not yet have inflation data for September, in August, the CPI was up 2.5%, a.k.a. what they’re trying to prepare us for is that inflation might rise again.

07:34
Which suggests that September will continue the 16-month series of wage growth outpacing price growth. So they’re basically telling us today, to our faces, that we can expect that inflation will continue to grow, but it’s okay because wage growth is outpacing it. No, no, it’s not okay. It’s not okay, because you and I know the truth. The truth is that wage growth is not outpacing inflation, and that if we have wage inflation and price inflation, it’s inflation no matter how you slice it and dice it.

08:08
Because ultimately, our wages are not increasing enough with the cost of living. If you look back in time at the average sale cost of a house, of a car, of anything, and you compare that salary to today, our dollar does not go as far—that is the bottom line. This is the stuff that really grinds my gears when I think about those in power—the government, the elites, the financial institutions—that tell us everything is fine, and they expect us to believe it. They want us to stay calm because they want to keep us in the system, the system that is not set up to protect us.

08:40
You and I know the reality of what’s going on. I don’t need you to tell me something that is clearly phony. Yes, technically, it is true, but again, look a little bit deeper and we can all see what’s going on here. It is a war on our dollars. It is a war on our savings. The only way that we can truly protect ourselves is outside of the system because if you stay in it—again, the system is designed for all of us to fail.

09:19
This is why I get so passionate about this because I continue to hear people telling me, “Well, I’m just going to wait. I’m going to wait until after November. I’m going to see how things go.” No, we know how things are going to go—this train already left the station. And as with most economic levers that are pulled, the impact isn’t felt immediately. So what’s happening right now with all this pretending and shuffling around, we are going to continue to feel those effects whether it’s in a month or in a year. It is going to continue to build, which means that your dollar will continue to be worth less.

09:50
And that is what I don’t want for anyone watching out there. I want us all to be able to protect our wealth so that we maintain our power, so we are in positions of power for what’s coming next. If you are concerned about any of this and you don’t know where to begin, talk to a member of our team. If you already think that you have a plan in place but you want a second opinion, talk to a member of our team. That is what we are here for—to help people just like you make sure that your concerns are addressed, that you have a plan in place, and that you are ready to achieve your goals, whatever those might be.

10:21
Because I’m telling you, the people in power right now—they are not the ones to help you get there. So if you haven’t already, click the Calendly link below in the description, call the number at the bottom of your screen, talk to a member of our team, and make sure that you are protected today. And if you have someone who you think would benefit from hearing this information, please be sure to like, subscribe, and share the video—it helps us get the word out. And as you know, there’s strength in numbers.

10:52
Thank you so much for being here. I’m Taylor Kenney with ITM Trading, your trusted source for all things gold, silver, and lifelong wealth protection. Until next time.