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Is there a Current Floor to the Gold Price?

Blog Feb 23, 2010

Gold has been of value for over 5,000 years. Civilizations have risen and fallen, currencies have come and gone and yet gold still is coveted by people all around the world. Gold has never been worthless! It has always had some value to it; therefore it is different than most other asset classes. Stocks, bonds and paper currencies for example can all become worthless at some point.

But is there a floor under the price of gold? The simple answer is no. I am assuming that this question is pertaining to the government. Neither the U.S. Government, nor any other government has a floor price on gold. A floor price being the minimum a person or institution has to charge for it, or the lowest possible dollar amount it can fall to. Gold can free float as high or as low as the market’s action will allow. So the price is determined primarily by supply and demand. But there are technical tools that can help us understand the price action of gold.

This leads me to believe the question is this: what is the current support level on the price of gold? Most assets trade between support on the bottom and resistance on the top. These two figures are determined by previous market action. When an asset breaks a resistance level, that figure then becomes the new support level. The current support level on gold is $1,017 which was the last resistance level. The resistance level at the top is $1,218. Gold has not tested that level since it was set in December of 2009. In addition, recently gold has had difficulty breaking $1,045 on the bottom (the price at which India bought 200 metric tonnes from the IMF) and the $1,120 mark on the top. So I am calling $1,045 to $1,120 a smaller trading range within the technical trading range.

Should gold go below $1,045, look for it to test the $1,017 level. If gold breaks the $1,120 level on the top look for it to test the $1,218 mark. If gold should break the $1,218 level that would then be the new support level with the new resistance level being unknown because it has never been higher. If gold should break the $1,017 support level that would then become the new resistance level and the next support level would be around $1,000.

Technical language can be confusing, so if I have done so I apologize. In the simplest form, the current support level is $1,017 and the current resistance level is $1,218.

Sources & References In This Article

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